As we delve into 2024, the Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) landscape continues to evolve, shaped by the echoes of the COVID-era and the dynamics of the present. In a recent “Deal-by-Deal” podcast by McGuireWoods, I sat down with host Greg Hawver to dig into the trends and expectations shaping the M&A sector, particularly in the middle to lower middle market. Here’s a closer look at the key trends we discussed in the podcast and see impacting M&A in 2024.
1. Reflecting on 2023: A Year of Caution and Decline
The year 2023 marked a significant downturn in M&A activities, recording one of the lowest deal-making volumes in a decade. This decline was not isolated but part of a continuing trend from the previous years, influenced by economic uncertainties and a shift in market dynamics. The year set a cautious tone, with both buyers and sellers recalibrating their strategies in response to the evolving economic landscape.
2. The Ascendancy of Corporate Deal-making
A notable shift in 2023, expected to influence trends in 2024, is the increased involvement of corporates in M&A activities. With substantial cash reserves, corporates have been capitalizing on their ability to deploy capital efficiently, making them significant players in the M&A arena. This trend underscores the strategic realignment of companies as they navigate the complexities of the current economic climate.
3. Bridging the Valuation Gap
A persistent theme, and one that’s expected to continue into 2024, is the disconnect between seller expectations and market valuations. Many sellers, influenced by the peak valuations of yesteryears, find themselves at odds with the current market realities. This valuation gap poses challenges but also opens up dialogues for recalibration and realignment of expectations, paving the way for more realistic and sustainable deal-making.
4. Anticipating the Pulse of 2024
The outlook for 2024 is cautiously optimistic, with the first half of the year likely mirroring the trends of 2023. However, as interest rates stabilize and valuation expectations align more closely between buyers and sellers, the latter half of the year could witness an uptick in M&A activities. This period of adjustment is crucial for both buyers and sellers to strategize and position themselves advantageously in the market.
5. The Evolution of Deal Structures and Financing
The M&A landscape in 2024 is witnessing an increasing complexity in deal structures. With more equity rollovers and structured deals, parties are seeking ways to de-risk transactions. The rise of private credit is reshaping the financing of deals, filling the void left by traditional lenders. This trend highlights the need for innovative financing solutions and flexible deal structures in the current market.
6. Industry-Specific Trends and the Role of Technology
Certain industries are poised to navigate 2024 differently, influenced by their cyclical nature and economic exposure. Additionally, the integration of AI and technology, especially in sectors like healthcare, is expected to drive transformation and create new opportunities. Staying attuned to these industry-specific trends and technological advancements will be key for M&A success in 2024.
7. Strategic Advice for Sellers and Buyers
In this evolving landscape, being well-prepared is paramount. Sellers are advised to align their expectations with market realities and ensure their businesses are primed for sale. Buyers, on the other hand, are encouraged to cultivate relationships and explore unique opportunities, especially before companies are already launched into broad auction processes.
As we navigate through 2024, the M&A landscape is marked by cautious optimism, strategic realignment, and an innovative approach to deal-making. By understanding these trends and adapting strategies accordingly, stakeholders in the M&A sector can navigate the complexities of the market and capitalize on the emerging opportunities.